Do You recall our latest 2 monthly articles (Outlook for January, 2019 Outlook for February, 2019) and the main message we delivered in both of these? - we had never observed such a weak supply of trading signals, the overall quality was unbelievably low. Well, guess what happened on March? besides Brexit shenanigans, random weather and the start of 2019 NCAA Playoffs, of-course. These "top-notch" signals blew up one after another, causing massive chaos across the MQL5. Like, each third or fourth day there was another massively popular signal that went "kaboom", that's how crazy it was.
Out of all most-subscribed signals that we highlighted as "dangerous and manipulative" in the previous update, in the last 4 weeks 11/20 (or 55%) crashed or significantly breached previous highs in terms of DD. If this is not a sniper precision, we don't know what is - this is the time to clap on our shoulders, much deserved. And yes, while others put maximum effort to deceive and manipulate with the general lack of knowledge, people behind FX Sumo try to even up the game. Let's not fool ourselves, we are not even close to being there yet, but trust us when we say - we are trying our best to get there at some point in the future.
This article will consist of 2 parts:
- As always, the article will start by general analysis of 25 most-subscribed MQL5 trading signals, as well as 2 of our own and 6 of those that our readers asked to be analyzed.
- Afterwards, we will take closer look at 12 signals that are somewhat reasonable and will try to rank them accordingly.
We encourage our followers and neutral observers to join our Telegram group, where trading signals are being evaluated and analyzed on daily basis: https://t.me/joinchat/Hpt7gUyosD5JZw-BFsVN3g
Because of positive feedback from the previous article, FX Sumo will continue to present "The Table" in straight-forward colored manner. Yes, specific parts still need to be zoomed in, however, the overall feeling is that this is much easier to be read than the previous versions.
As same as before, table is divided into two parts - binary "bullshit" check based on 5 segments and deeper analysis of those signals that get through first check. The good news are - compared to the previous month, the # of reasonable signals among TOP 25 has increased from 5 to 8 (by 60%), which is not bad at all. Unfortunately, 17 out of 25 are still majority and pretty much garbage from top to bottom. Unless each third (~30%) "popular signal" becomes reasonable and trustworthy, there is nothing to be excited for - still nonsense left-n-right.
This was first month when we tried to incorporate signals from other platform - FX Junction - in our analysis as well. Yet, we failed... Although FX Junction is visually more appealing than MQL5 and it's being run by much more intelligent individuals, there are some major problems with the way how signals are being displayed there:
- Non-existence of "most subscribed list" -> if we don't have this, what's there to analyze? And yes, there are some idiotic leader-boards like "pips leaders" (highly dependent on traded instruments and time-frame of specific strategies) or "return leaders" (frankly, if You are part of this list, You have no fucking idea what You are doing, no MM at all), but there is absolutely 0 need for those;
- Deposit load of signals is not being measured at all -> this is instrumental in predicting potential future DDs and understanding how reasonable is position sizing;
- Drawdown (for Equity) is not being tracked on daily basis, therefore, quite impossible to analyze monthly performance for the signals there;
- Deposits and Withdraws are not being tracked at all, no clue at what times these are being made and whether there has been no manipulation with DD levels;
- It is not displayed at what time signals had been actually connected to the platform -> it's no surprise that neither MQL5 nor FX Junction don't track actual DD (Equity) levels before publishing a signal, therefore, offline history is complete rubbish.
FX Sumo does hope that FX Junction and it's representing members/administrators will take all of this into consideration.
Out of 33 analyzed signals, from our perspective, 12 can be classified as more or less reasonable. Signals that could (and should) be considered when deciding on where to invest - let's call them that. Each of these signals were evaluated based on 4 criteria and valuations were given from "Horrible" to "Wonderful". In order to assure maximum objectivity, these valuations were transferred in points from 1 (lowest, red) to 5 (highest, blue) -> based on the sum of points, the signals got ranked. Before ranking these signals, we must say - out of all 4 criteria, first 3 are purely mathematical, thus, these are as objective as it gets. Fourth one, "communication with subscribers", is a rather subjective one - we took into consideration style, quality and frequency of communication with subscribers. This is what we got:
Let's go over these one-by-one and investigate in more detailed manner.
Red Diamond Trade - by far, the worst of Ocean's Twelve. There is no manipulation with historical results and performance is "legit", that is pretty much only reason why this one is included here. Tiny deposit and no communication from signal provider indicates that he simply doesn't care. SLs are part of this system, yet position sizing is overly aggressive, thus, a sequence of losing trades can give 25-30% DD easily. All in all, besides average money management, there is simply not enough to look for. Btw, a lesson for our readers - trading doesn't have to be necessarily efficient, as long as there is control over trading positions; with proper MM, You almost automatically become better than 90% of other traders.:)
MWsclp - still free and with stable track record (in terms of MM), however, wildly ineffective trading. Similarly to the previous signal, combination of no communication from signal author and low deposit indicates that he doesn't care -> don't get us wrong, as long as his signal is free that should be fine with everyone. Although there are quite many losing months, money management is always there and losses are somewhat limited - for those that look to diversify away some of the risks from other investments, this could be the way.
Lemar Unusual - although there are 3 months of offline trading, the average return in those is considerably lower than in the 3 following months, therefore, we decided to let this one pass the 4th point of "BS Check" (if it was other way around, this would have been disqualified). Frankly, this is just idiotically managed trading account; like, it has some potential and efficiency is there, but money management is simply non-existing. On top of that, balance is as low as possible, thus, the author is gambling with subs' money and just doesn't care about any risks - the fact that You are following him and have paid fees is auto-win for him. In terms of score, this one is being lifted by communication criteria, as the author actually speaks and has provided some-sort of description for his signal (contrary to first 2). We believe that with such style of trading, the signal will live for another month or 2, and then will eventually blow up - it's Your decision whether You want to stick around and wait for that.
FX Sumo STeady - trading remains inefficient and there are occasional DD spikes that get over our heads. Likewise to almost every trading signal out there, month of March was rough for this one, although the end result, in terms of absolute growth levels, will be the very best we ever had. We are still considering the ways of reducing risks, however, it remains extremely hard task as we are already trading with minimum allowed position sizes. Generally speaking, this account is forward-testing potential EAs and their updated settings before those are included in Millionaire Signal, therefore, results will always be somewhat below average.
Consistent and Steady 5 to 10 percent - congratz, first member of FX Junction platform has been analyzed here. Yes, yes, the link is to the MQL5, luckily, the person had created his signals on both platforms, as FX Junction's statistics (as described before) turned to be absolutely unreadable. Let's start with the positive - drawdown/deposit load ratio is very high, thus, choice of individual position sizing is very reasonable. Unfortunately, the signal trades variety of different currency pairs, and it seems that these positions are not well-enough diversified across each other, as DD tends to spike quite a lot. As this is grid-type of trading system, it is quite easy to tell which currency pairs have caused the most problems:
Remember: for any system that employs grid-trading elements (or basket trading, call as You wish), efficiency can be measured as gross profit versus gross pips - the lower the ratio, the more efficient trading is on that particular pair (no need for additional trades to get out of baskets on that particular instrument). Here, without looking to specific trades in the history, it can be easily seen that AUDUSD/USDJPY/USDSGD have caused quite a trouble, and these have had the highest proportion of "troublesome trades" and extensive grid-cycles.
If position sizes cannot be decreased any further, probably, the author should consider dropping one or two currency pairs (well, we already found candidates for this). Due to sub-par results on 3 of the 7 currency pairs, trading is inefficient, as growth/drawdown ratio continues to be significantly below 1 month after month. There is some potential with this signal, however, certain aspects have to be improved significantly in order for this one to fully-realize it's potential.
Investicum - one of the last 2 Hamster Mahicans out there - have talked about these a lot in the past, nothing new to say. Out of all Hamster shenanigans, this one seems to be holding on the best. Unfortunately, the author has managed to blow many accounts in the past trading with this EA, thus, we don't have any positive expectations with this one either. Yes, he communicates with his followers, but most of that is just some jibber-jabber nonsense; on top of that, he recently decreased his deposit size by 4x, loosing confidence, hmm?
Blackwave Pacific - this one is backed by ton of capital, resulting in rather high total score. Despite all that $$$, trading efficiency is sub-par and money management is lacking at times. Realistically, this one should decrease it's aggressiveness 2 or 3 times, in order to qualify higher in terms of money management - this is the only major improvement that can be made here. With regards to trading efficiency, it is what it is - the system has been running for almost 4 years without any meaningful changes, therefore, efficiency is somewhat limited.
MIDNIGHT EXPRESS - yes, it's Eleni, and yes, it's another version of Hamster. The only reason this one got in here -> every trade has it's SL, so there is an actual hope for at-least some money management. It is impossible to tell what's gonna happen with this one, as there are 101 currency pairs being traded simultaneously. Deposit load remains idiotically high, but who cares as long as there are SLs, right? As with all Hamsters, trading efficiency remains considerably above average. Out of all dumbasses out there, this person actually speaks with her subscribers, which lifts the total score even higher. Probably, even too high, but hell - who knows...
Shikari - what can we say here? - signal that focuses on it's strongest qualities and ignores everything else. Trading efficiency is below average, while everything else is much better. Likewise to Blackwave, ton of $$$ behind this one, however, combined with reasonable and sustainable money management. End result? - one of the 4 best signals out there.
Criptotradert - normally, we would avoid analyzing signals that are being run on MT5, however, we are expanding our horizons this month, so - mjeh, let's see. With this signal, we are somewhat torn apart - it has many good sides, but all of them feel... a bit blurry?
Efficiency is definitely there, growth/DD ratios are very solid; there are a ton of different currency pairs being traded, thus, diversification of trades is definitely helping this one. In terms of money management, drawdown feels controlled, but, honestly - impossible to say... Because it's MT5, no SL/TP of positions are displayed; deposit load figures are way too high, and, combined with manual trading element here, we have no clue whether these DD levels are result of pure luck or there is some underlying sense. One could say that history of 3 months is not long enough, however, there are 400 trades made in this period - again, that's quite a lot and should be comforting for any potential investor. The signal's broker is unknown, yet, who cares? - trading history is legit, signal has been up&running on MQL5 since the very beginning.
Unfortunately, there are some obvious problems with this signal that don't allow it to rank any higher. First and foremost - balance; 600$ balance that is copied by a grand total of 121k $, that's just wrong. Unless the author increases his balance 10x and takes some risk on his side as well, this signal won't classify any higher. Secondly, the author has made some dubious statements, like, "the signal aims to reach 35% growth per month" -> well, if that's true, it will end-badly, as 35% level is unsustainable and trying to reach that will sooner or later fuck-up money management. Normally, we wouldn't care about such claims (or these would be less-emphasized), however, trading is purely manual here, thus, we don't know at what moment the author will lose his mind and start acting unreasonably (as seen before with other such signals).
Professor - lots of controversy surrounding this one, however, for us, it still remains one of the very best signals out there. Yes, this last month was pretty much garbage, yet, money management remains exceptional and potential is still there. Although some of existing subscribers are absolutely disgusted with recent trading results (absolute loss of 10%), losses can happen time to time with signals that strictly control their downside, so we are not losing our minds with this. What annoys us about this signal, honestly, is the communication - it's there, but, hell, probably, there are times when it would be better to just keep Your mouth shut and sit in the damn corner.
Wait, wut? - Sherlock, You haven't passed a shit -> why would You think otherwise? The whole month was garbage, and it wasn't like You ended it with a winning-streak or anything; it was shit-storm from start to end, from bad to worse. Calm Your tits and figure this one out before making some crazy claims about managing millions of dollars, just straight-up nonsense. This is the case when FX Sumo values the actual trading results higher than the person behind the signal, and, as this one as well is manually traded account, one must wonder what the future holds for this one...:/
Millionaire Signal - for first time ever, we rank our own signal at the very top, but You know what? - we feel that this is very much deserved. Likewise to other signals, month of March was quite crazy for us, however, it turned out to be a two-sided story.
The very start of the month was absolutely horrible for us - volatility on EURUSD caught us and one of the underlying EAs got stuck with 11% DD (approx. 250 pips from first entry), which was the highest level recorded on that specific algorithm for the period of last 10 years (the previous top for that EA sit on 8%). Obviously, EURUSD (as well as other pairs) acted-out due to Brexit shenanigans, thus, trading was extremely choppy and fundamentals-driven. Fortunately, this situation with abnormal DD got solved, however, at the end of last week's Wednesday, Millionaire Signal was sitting with 11% monthly DD and a total loss of ~3% for the whole month. It looked extremely bad, we were not certain whether the month will even be positive for us.
8 trading days before the end of March we decided to implement some changes. We re-evaluated each and every EA behind the signal, and decided to throw away an EA that had caused a grand total of ~7% loss for the period of last 3 months. Although this EA had been tested for the period of 10 years and had shown exceptional results, we felt that the back-tests could be over-optimized, as real-trading didn't match our expectations.
What happened in the last 8 trading days did surprise us -> not only the signal managed to climb out from the heavy losses, but it also recorded extremely high returns with very limited drawdown, resulting in crazy-high efficiency for the period. For the last 1.5 weeks, Millionaire grew by 9% and it's DD stayed below 2%; March was ended with ~6% total growth, which is by far the best result so far. This was the month when our MM got tested (compared to others, Millionaire was still exceptional) and there were signs of improvement with regards to trading efficiency (although the monthly growth/DD ratio remained low, ~0.6).
Usually, we do point out some of our concerns with regards to our own trading, and this time will be no different. Firstly, we are not entirely sure whether "efficiency problem" has been solved - there is a light of hope, but that's it, at-least for now. 1.5 weeks is just not enough to state whether there is significant improvement on this end, probably, this has been just a lucky run and nothing more. Secondly, we will be first to tell You - a total growth of 9% throughout a time-span of 8 days is just ridiculously high, especially, for our "conservative" trading approach. Either diversification of EAs has finally started to show some results, or there is something wrong with chosen-risk settings and correlations between underlying EAs. We will continue to monitor the situation, but, frankly, these recent results feel "too good to be true".
Well, finito, that's pretty much it from our side.
We feel that it is extremely important that our readers give their feedback for our material. We encourage You to analyze and criticize our findings, as well as actively engage in these discussions. Share FX SUMO analytical/educational articles and raise the level of critical-thinking for Yourself, as well as the overall community. More than ever we have to look-past all the fog to see the real picture; the list of analyzed signals is still of very low quality -> this has to change ASAP, otherwise, new stories of lost money will be unfolded very very soon.
Best of luck,