Mid-August Outlook

It is 15th of August, half of the month is already behind us, and a lot has taken place. In this rather lengthy update we will:

a)look back on July's update and re-cap what we predicted and what actually has happened since then;

b)briefly analyze current top-signals, trying to understand, which of these paper planes have the highest potential to crash;

c)provide our perspective to the hottest debate among sunbscribers - TwilightProfitEA vs Safety Dragon;

d)provide short updates to our own trading strategies.

During our last update, we made quite a few strong statements and most of them have come to realization in less than 15 days. Firstly, we were super-negative towards a signal service ROCK, as we were sure that the author had manipulated his past results in order to attract larger proportion of "sheeps". Since then, this has happened:

Basically, he blew up his account. Afterwards, the author stated that this trading signal will be deleted, said "sorry", and reminded to everyone that he still has 2 other trading signals - everyone should join those.

The author blew up his account in the very start of August, however, trading signal has not yet been deleted. Why? - well, in order for him to receive the full amount of subscriptions, 30 days have to pass. Obviously, the author doesn't give a sh@# about the fact that he just lost a ton of money for his subscribers -> as long as he receives his payment for this great service, everything is fine, right? The story doesn't end just there - as You see, 110 praying subscribers are still with this moron, hoping for any kind of recovery during the month of August. Reaction from the author? - increase the price of this bullshit and try to squeeze as much as possible from the remaining "sheeps". We are absolutely disgusted by this ongoing stupidity, however, it's not like his subscribers would be smart (or even close to that). Read these comments:

"we still believe You"; "You are the man"; "You watned everyone about the risks"; "I want to follow Your other signals" etc etc etc - naivety and stupidity is dengerous combination, what else is left to say? Ah, yes - when one might think that this circus is over, the author actually does make 2 additional trading signals and these fools do subscribe to those as well:

Now, there is truly nothing left to be said. Amen.

When we analyzed the top performers of July, we highlighted 3 trading signals - AyRobot MT, Mewtwo and SAPIAPA FOG. With regards to SAPIAPA, we did state that the overall level of risk is too high and, combined with manual trading, this creates problems for signal's longevity. Unfortunately, the underlying risks were even higher and problems with this signal escalated quite quickly ending in blow-up. Atleast here the author had enough decency to delete his trading service and retrieve recent subscription fees back to original subscribers. Both Mewtwo and AyRobot are operating as they should (and as predicted), relying fully on automated trading systems.

Out of today's 15 most subscribed trading signals, 3 are newcomers (when compared to July) that we will analyze in more detail. Currently, among these 15 signals are also ROCK and Conservative Forex, however, both of these should have been dead already and its been enough said about these.

First newcomer is a trading signal FXGlow. One should spot 2 things here - great growth curve and scetchy equity curve -> that's always an indication that real fun is about to begin.:)

When we described the most popular ways of manipulating a signal's performance Choosing Your Signal Provider, we did not mention this type of nonsense, as this is something new, hats off to the author. (y)

Similarly to the other cases, the performance of such trading signal is not being tracked since very first trade, but somewhere in the middle. Usually, this allows signal providers to manipulate with their past growth/drawdown ratio. This guy has gone 1 step further -> he has made some lucky guesses in the past, however, he then decided to leave these trades open. By doing this, when the moment of synchronization with MQL5 comes, his growth curve is less crazy as it could potentially be, however, the real fun begins. By having the existing positions deep (really, DEEP) in the profits, he can open new trades without any worries about potential drawdown. What is more, the new trades could potentially go in very deep losses, even exceeding the existing level of balance, and statistically he still won't be in drawdown, as unclosed trades from the past are there to cover the whole sh@# up. Due to that, new subscribers who don't benefit from these past trades in any way, will get totally screwed by the garbage quality of the newest trades; meanwhile MQL5 won't display any problems, how cool is that?

Obviously, this is possible as long as the trades from the past are unclosed and in profits. How long will this last? - who knows... Is this safe and profitable? - for fk sake, no. 119 subscribers with 170k funds? - no comments.

Second newcomer is FXLionCross:

Straight up manipulation with historical performance - 65 subscribers/180k funds -> sit and pray, dumb sheeps, sit and pray... 4400% growth with 4% drawdown in 4 months - should we say anything more here?

Third newcomer is REITAK Night Fast Money:

No manipulation here, however, similarly to SAPIAPA FOG and Conservative Forex, absolute level of risks is too high, thus, there should be problems with longevity. Growth/drawdown ratio is still very reasonable for these 3 months -> if the author could decrease his risk appetite, this would turn out to be something big.

It is safe to say that the 3 newcomers should not be perceived as serious investment opportunities. So what are the actual options right now? - frankly, the most popular 2, TwilightProfitEA and Safety Dragon, are the most viable options for now. How they compare with each other and do we have clear favourite? - Lets see:

Finally, a short update about our own trading signals:

With regards to Millionaire Signal, we have managed to come up with additional trading strategy that could work simultaneously to our existing EURUSD strategy. The new trading concept is based on trading with GBPUSD pair and it offers attractive growth/drawdown ratio, while having low absolute level of risks:

Meanwhile, FX SUMO Steady is struggling with its level of risks as EURUSD and GBPUSD continue to slide. We are trying to find ways to improve the current situation.

That's all from our side. If You have any suggestions or You disagree with some of the ideas, feel free to leave Your comment below!

Best of luck,

FX Sumo