It is just mid-October, yet so much has already taken place. FX Sumo feels that this is the moment to stop for a while, take a snapshot of the previous 2 weeks and understand what-how&why has been happening.
This article will be divided in 3 parts:
- Fundamental discussion of reasons why we actually create these articles;
- Re-visiting September's update;
- Fun time with some new & absolutely horrible trading signals.
Before we start, those wondering about the trip to Malta - it was absolutely fabolous. Fantastic climate combined with friendly people and a ton of history, reflected in marvelous architecture of citadeles and forts. We strongly encourage everyone to visit this great place.
We will kick this off in unusual way - discussion of why we are here and what we try to prove through creating these articles. After the previous update (September – first division of signals), some members of our audience were quite displeased with the fact that quite a few of our top picks have had rather poor start of the October. Our answer to these rebels (honestly, we love them, no jokes here.:) will consist of 3 parts:
- When we analyze specific trading signals, FX Sumo looks on trading history and different signals' performance matrices. We have the same information available as to any other independant investor; we don't contact any of these signals' owners and we don't have any inside information about backtests or other underlying risks of these. We have developped our own methodology on how to analyze these investment opportunities with the restricted amount of information that is available to all of us. Is this methodology perfect? - there are clear examples of situations that we cannot crack, but hey - nonetheless, this is something. On top of that, we are sharing our vision and arguments with others, while not being monetized about this in any way. Do we deserve all the blame coming to our direction? - that's for You to decide.
- Fair criticism would be displayed by the moment when the article comes out and would be attributed for the span of time it has analyzed. We have said numerous times that past performance doesn't necessarly translate in future success - likewise to actual trading, we don't know what the future will bring, all we can do is to make educated guesses. So reading the article, not saying anything, and then pointing fingers to us when a rather appealing signal from the past goes bust -> is this the correct approach? - once again, that's for You to decide.
- An avarage MQL5 investor has not developped reasonable expectations about these signals' performance. Here is a quote from a discussion that we had with a stock trader who was thinking about investing in MQl5 signals. Here is our take:
It's not about forex, but investments in general - You need money to make money, nothing new here. Just somebody here has expectations that he will found magical signal, in which he will invest as much as 100 USD and then he will make thousands out of this; aditionally, all of this will happen through subscription fees, which don't even reach 1 USD per day. For fk sake, where is the logics in that!? - 1 USD per day to have a service, which is expected to outperform the market on daily basis without having any risks. Risk-free rate is 1,5-2% per annum, top-risk fond managers tend to make 7-10% per annum, but some dumbasses here expect that for 30USD they will get a system which will produce hundreds of % in profits, there is 0 logics, nothing. That's why the signals here are sucking the floor (to put it mildly) - a successful and stable system is much more worth than $ 30 a month. There was a trading signal called CaLM - it is bullshit that he received ONLY 60k per month, the sum should have been 3x as high (based on numbers and average returns that he was generating before). The thing that nobody sees - he was managing capital close to 7 mil, average monthly return was approximately 10%, which is 700k. From 700k idiots' (sorry, but really - idiots) profit, he as the author of the system received less than 10%, while in other industries these % would be as high as 30-35%, because system and methodology is the cornerstone, only afterwards the capital follows. Two-sided situation - signal providers charge their subs with garbage subscriptions fees and provide low-quality service, so there are no surprises when so many of them blow up in no time at all.
Let's revisit September's update and discuss the most interesting cases and what has happened in the last 2 weeks.
FXGROW - when the site's most-susbscribed signal is as shitty as this one, the mental health of an avarage MQl5 investor should be questioned.
What else should he do in order for people to finally unsubscribe from this?! We called for this like 2 months ago, but who cares.
Profit one hundred percent - when the author increases his account balance 25(!!!) times just to avoid getting blown up, that should tell something. Somehow we feel that if the same author would make a next signal profit one thousand percent, there would still be a ton of subscribers who would join this ride. If You want to burn Your money, take us to the trip and let's party for a few nights - no need to burn it here, this is just stupid.
Out of all low-tier signals from September's update (September – first division of signals), previous 2 have alreay crashed and there are quite many expected to perform similarly in the upcoming weeks/months. More about these You can read in the link above.
Surprisingly to us, quite a few of top-tier signals have struggled a lot as well in first 2 weeks of October.
If we were to re-rank the top signals based on the recent performance, this is how this would look:
Portofolioku - drop in equities, combined with sharp increase of gold price, caught many off-guard, including owner of this signal. Many investors were flaming about this strategy being built around grid trading aspects, which caused the problems. From our standpoint, the strategy was built just fine, however, it missed time-restriction condition, therefore, too many positions were opened in a very short span of time. Such spikes in prices do test strategies' money management and unfortunately this one was not good enough for this signal.
Eagle EyE Ultimate - it was a month ago when we had a clash with the owner of this signal:
Probably, we are very pensive, but up-to-date the signal has reached 17,2% DD, which, as expected, is higher than the owner's pre-determined max values of DD. Unfortunately, this system is facing over-optimization problems (as we have pointed out numerous times), the author is manually interving with the system and the results have been far from promised. What else can be said here? - Disappointment.
GutsOverFear - another case that shows the simple reality - existance of SLs does not protect You from having high levels of DD. Yes, probably You won't blow up Your account in 1 or 2 particular trades, but You still have all the opportunities to do that in the longer period of time. Even when dropping this one out of top-list of signals, it has all the opportunities to get back in -> stop the bleeding, understand what's wrong and carry on. Both this and Eagle's signal would be T4 signals for us, both in urgent need for improvements in order to re-establish themselves as part of the very best.
MaxProfit2018 - after an almost a year such a slide in DD was totally unexpected. We are wondering what adjustments will the author make, as it seems that generally the system is working. We leave this one out of the T3, but out of all 4 (actually, 3, porto is dead) this has the highest probability to get back in the very short amount of time.
Before we get to the final part of this article, FX Sumo would like to remind its followers (and neutral observers) that we have our Telegram group, link: https://t.me/joinchat/Hpt7gUyosD5JZw-BFsVN3g
The aim of this group is to share information about various trading signals and educate its members on ways of interpreting trading statistics and financial matrices of these signals.
If Your day is not bright enough, this last part should cheer You up - if these signals can have subs, everything is possible in this fun fun world.:)
AnnaFlat2 - 3 times DD has surpassed 35%, we are wondering how long this will survive, as there are significant longevity risks. Somehow, investors are trusting with their money more if its managed by a women (Anna, before Sahar). We are wondering what would be the potential amount of subs if the picture next to the financial matrices would be a women in bikini?
Signals of Ibrahim Akin Karakayal - how many times a signal provider can let You down and yet You continue subscribing to his services? This guy is a real encouragement to all other signal providers out there - failure is acceptable, just create new signals and people will come. If he can do it, everyone can. 40+ subs for all 3 of this mastermind's signals - sure as hell, why not?
The final example will be the signal WDGann - clear (as fk) manipulation with results, yet 30 subs that are willing to lose 55k of their funds -> if this dumbass can do this, we all should be capable to pull something similar off.
Have You, guys, seen this movie? Watch this cut-seen -> this fully-displays our mood:
That's all from our side. Guys, if You feel that this content brings value to both potential and existing subscibers of different forex trading signals, share our content with other investors as well. FX Sumo is here to educate and raise awarness, however, we are still building up site's recognition, and You could help us with this tremendously. If You have any suggestions or You disagree with some of the ideas, feel free to leave Your comment below! Otherwise, we would be happy to chat with You on our Telegram group!
Best of luck,