Do You remember August? Bloody August, discussion of trading Signals? This was the time when both Twilight and Safe Dragon blew up, causing massive losses left-n-right. Well, compared to November, August was insignificant hiccup. Past 4-weeks have been absolutely crazy, leading to huge losses even for most-trusted trading signals. In times of massive turbulance, we must look for services that are still standing tall&strong, and that's what we are doing in this review.
This review, which will be the last one in this year, wlll consist of 3 parts:
- usual comparison of 25 most-subscribed MQl5 signals, as well as 2 of our own trading signals and 6 of those that our followers asked to analyze;
- discussion of Combz and his ongoing "recovery";
- discussion of coherence between Drawdown and Deposit load.
FX Sumo would like to remind its followers (and neutral observers) that we have our Telegram group, link: https://t.me/joinchat/Hpt7gUyosD5JZw-BFsVN3g
The aim of this group is to share information about various trading signals and educate its members on ways of interpreting trading statistics and financial matrices of these signals.
Here is the full-list of analyzed signals:
Before we dive into these signals and their performances, FX SUMO must adress a question that is commonly asked:
Signal division in 8 Tiers is based on these 5 criteria, although there is room for subjectivity. We must remind our readers that we are in no way affiliated or connected with the signals that we are analyzing here, thus, keeping our opinion as objective as possible.
Similarly to October's update, general signal analysis part will be as short&concise as possible, as most of these signals have been discussed before.
Everyone should make their New Year resolutions, right? - Well, here is ours - to be less agressive and mind our language, keep our anger management in check. While this is still December, we will use our last opportunity to storm out on one particularly nasty individual.
Looking back to our previous update October outlook - we did call out one of the Hamster users, mr. Combs. With this guy, not only we classified his trading method as outrageous and absolutely dumb, we also analyzed his public statements and pointed out to idiotic claims this shit was making left-n-right:
We believe we had reasonable take on this one as it crashed just a week after our review. No biggy, as it should have recovered within month and super-duper "recovery strategy" should have been there, right? - Well...
So he publicly stated -> recovery in 2 weeks. During 2 weeks, he has managed to recover... nothing.
Besides 2 weeks, "recovery" will be smooth without increased levels of risks - sure as hell.
Check how the equity graph looks before this crash and after it -> while running the same Goddamn Hamster, he could have recovered atleast something. Unfortunately, this shithead don't even trust the fking system behind this circus, thus, his manual trading skills are in full display. Unfortunately, these skills are as garbage as his public claims.
When one would think that he has heard everything from this little punk, here is a bit more:
Well, when all Your idiotic promises are crushed and real results show You are completely and utterly full of shit, You start talking about prophecies and what not. Un-fuking-real.
Still 112 followers with 70+k capital - clap and dance, boyz, clap and dance.
The final part of this review will be devoted to discussion of coherence between deposit load and drawdown. Trading signals of Ifeanyi Obi will be used as example to prove our arguments.
Let's start by figuring out meaning behind term "deposit load":
The deposit load value shows the percent of account funds used to open positions; formula: Deposit load = Margin/Equity * 100, where
Margin = Lot value (in the symbol base currency)/Leverage value, where
Lot value = contract size of 1 lot * #of lots. For example, for EURUSD typical contract size for 1 lot is 100'000 USD.
Besides all the mathematics here, what effectively deposit load shows is whether chosen levels of position-sizing is reasonable. In real-trading conditions, a trader is the one who controls Margin side, while market is the one that "rules over" Equity side. Because of that, trader is the one who choses "initial" deposit load level, and market is the one that "corrects" it through price action. In the result, lower initial deposit load will lead to higher tolerance of market shocks and will increase market moves that an account can absorb.
So what is relationship between deposit load and drawdown? - mathematically, this one could be hard to grasp, but intuitively - higher initial level of deposit load will lead to higher and more uncontrolled drawdown. Effectively, drawdown/deposit load ratio can show how large market moves is a signal tolerating. Low ratio of these, below 1, indicate that whether signal is quick (in terms of pips) to cut it's losses or it has been just lucky and has not experienced higher DD in terms of pips.
Some examples here:
FX Sumo STeady - max DD 57,4%, deposit load 8,4% -> ratio is ~7, which confirms the fact that signal has survived more than 1500 pip move against it;
Millionaire Signal - max DD 27,3%; deposit load 14,3% -> ratio is ~2, it has survived both ~300 pip move in GBPUSD and ~200pip move in EURUSD against it;
ICM1 (much criticized) - max DD 42,1%; deposit load 26,7% -> ratio is 1,5, last 40% DD was caused by 120+ pip move in USDCHF;
ChickenPips - max DD 11,9%; deposit load 17% ->in the previous months this ratio was higher, above 1, therefore, one can argue that the author actually did trade too agressively in the month of November, as currently the ratio is significantly below 1. Despite that this increased position sizing did not lead to significant losses, questions remain about author's ability to continue trading in calm manner. The fact that signal is being traded purely-manual does not help here either, and that is why it is placed at T2 position and not above.
Safest 5 percent/ Investicum/Success -> all these use the same trading methodology, thus. will check only 1 of these -> Success - max DD 20,2%; deposit load - 28,8% -> ratio is very low month after month -> signal must be keeping it's trades in check, right? - nope, not really:
Just one example -> 0.9 lots in audusd pair with SL ~150 pips -> with 3k equity (that was available when trades were made) that would be 50% DD if being hit. author claims that max allowed DD is 30% -> obviously, that is not true. Based on this reasoning, we believe that the author has been just lucky with the fact that his DD hasn't skyrocketed and reached higher levels -> as mentioned in first part of review, this historical performance is not indicative of future results.
We feel that FX Sumo has managed to accomplish quite a lot within the last 6 months. We have developed content, which has been visited by people from all over the world.
Despite not always receiving proper recognition, we will continue to develop our content. During December we expect to come up with new educational content; on top of that, we will present new details about our trading signals and ways of improving their performances. November's review is the very last one of 2018, there is no need to discuss 2 weeks of trading happening in December; moreover, we feel quite tired and would love to spend some quality time with our families&friends.
That's all from our side. Guys, if You feel that this content brings value to both potential and existing subscibers of different forex trading signals, share our content with other investors as well. FX Sumo is here to educate and raise awarness, however, we are still building up site's recognition, and You could help us with this tremendously. If You have any suggestions or You disagree with some of the ideas, feel free to leave Your comment below! Otherwise, we would be happy to chat with You on our Telegram group!
Best of luck,