SEPTEMBER – FIRST DIVISION OF SIGNALS
The month of September was dull - no other way to put it. Is it a bad thing? - well, after August's shenanigans, having a dull month is all investors could have hoped for. In this update, FX Sumo will compare AND GROUP (yeah, that's something new) MQL5's 25 most-subscribed trading signals, as well as 6 of those that our followers asked to analyze and 2 our own trading signals. Should be fun, as always.:)
FX Sumo would like to remind its followers (and neutral observers) that we have our Telegram group, link: https://t.me/joinchat/Hpt7gUyosD5JZw-BFsVN3g
The aim of this group is to share information about various trading signals and educate its members on ways of interpreting trading statistics and financial matrices of these signals.
Here is the full-list of analyzed signals:
As mentioned in the beginning, the structure of this update will be a bit different from the previous ones. Yes, we will still provide extensive analysis of particular trading signals, however, it will all start by grouping them. Groups will be discussed from the worst to best, thus, the further You will read, the brighter all of this will look.
Group 8 - Shady Shits:
The representatives of this group possess manipulated trading history and all-around scam-like feeling.
FXGLOW - enough was said in the August's review Bloody August, discussion of trading Signals . Nothing has changed since then, September's results are bad, truly hate this one.
Another member of this group - GBPJPY COMMUNITY. 36 5* reviews, 51 subscriber with total funds of 300+k, yet horrible results month after month. Even after 4 month period, this one is not capable to reach total growth/DD ratio above 1. In one of the Telegram's discussion groups this one was analyzed as well - quite many individuals from Indonesia confirmed that these guys are known as scam-artists, thus, it wouldn't surprise us if all the reviews were faked.
The final member of this group is Four Leaf Clover - You don't double Your account balance just to keep Your drawdown in check, a huge no no from us:
Group 7 - Impossible to be copied:
The representatives of this group on daily basis perform transactions that are impossible to be copied on followers' accounts (atleast, profitably).
Previously, this element of trading signals did not draw our attention, however, after receiving numerous complains, FX Sumo decided to study this in more-depth.
AyRobotMT/Winner/Echo/Growth 20 Percent A Month - all 4 of these trading strategies are based on very fast and agressive scalping techniques. Unless a potential subscriber has available extremely fast VPS and durable broker with close-to-0 spreads, this will cause a ton of slippage problems.
These trading techniques look for rapid price movements, often caused by economic news or other events. Because of that, the underlying trades have extremely-fast closure, even a few seconds. Unless You have perfect copying conditions, stay away from these.
Group 6 - Signals with longevity risks:
The representatives of this group are utilizing poor money management features that could result in disastorous results in very near future.
Profit one hundred percent - solid growth/DD values, but unsustainable absolute levels of risks. Probably, this is the best trading signal out of all this group, but it doesnt change the fact that it has potential to blow up within the next month.
Pallada - ineffective trading all around this one. We are extremely surprised that this one has lasted for that long. 29 followers with 35k funds - unbelievable.
REITAK Night Fast Money - although a month of September was a bit more steady, the absolute levels of risks are still way way way over the author's head. On top of that, it is not like the growth levels would be amazing enough to support this type of roller-coaster.
HAMSTER EUR - great growth/DD values, but unsustainable risk-tolerance. We are aware of the fact that the author encourages his subs to invest only 1/4 of available funds and constantly withdraw profits, but that's just all-around stupid. The author should decrease the level of risks till the level, at which he would be confident about the service that he provides. Otherwise, it will be impossible to evaluate this one's long-term results and we won't be able to take this one seriously.
Victor Trader - horrible, catastrophic, disastorous. 83k invested in this one - go on a fking trip for that money, why should one burn it here?
ECN Alpari - growth/DD values are not that bad, so this strategy has some potential. Unfortunately, this one will probably not survive long enough to prove us that it is actually worth something, as it is clearly missing reasonable money management.
FX Sumo STeady - unfortunately, second strategy that we added to this trading signal has not been able to generate expected results, therefore, for first time the total monthly result has been negative. We still do believe that in long-run we should improve our total growth/DD ratio, however, it is not coming easy for us and the struggle is real.
Group 5 - Reasonable money management combined with inefficient trading:
The representatives of this group provide their customers with long-lasting, however, inefficient, trading systems. These can be considered as lesser evil than the previous signals - the risks of losing money with these systems are insignificant, but these won't manage Your funds efficiently, similarly to banks.
This group consists of 3 signals - MWsclp / VK7777 / Shikari. If an investor is looking to create a portfolio of trading signals, allocating a small part to any of these would not be the worst decision ever. These could help to diversify away risks coming from other trading signals, however, You will always have the feeling that the level of returns is just not sufficient for the level of taken risks.
Group 4 - solid strategies with a bit too agressive risk-tolerance:
Do You remember this article Choosing Your Signal Provider? The representatives of this group have everything in check, yet the chosen level of absolute risks is debatable. Because of that, these don't qualify (atleast, for now) to stand among the very best trading signals out there.
Investicum is a clear member of this group. Although performance in June and July was smooth, August and September have made things dubious. Even with the recent struggles, the signal has managed to earn courteous amounts in profits. Out of 4 members of the group, this is by far the most stable one and clear favourite among these.
Conservative Forex deserves a spot here as well. FX Sumo has discussed this signal many times before, nothing really new. The signal and it's DD experienced some turbulance in September as well, restoring the doubts of chosen level of risks.
Outside the Box Medium Risk - although this signal has quite lenghty history, drawdown values are available only since start of September. Here, we will trust our guts - the owner has successfully offered signal services to the other platforms as well, thus, we don't believe that he is manipulating with his results. Despite that, 30% within the first month in MQl5? - could be problematic, not to say least.
The final spot should be given to REITAK LongTerm Trading. The signal has insufficient history, low amount of trades and we see some deeper-underlying risks. Even his last DD spike looks dodgy:
He had quite many sell Gold orders open, which all were in quite high DD before important USD news:
Then comes out positive-USD news, Gold drops significantly and the DD plunges from 11% to 0% in a metter of hours. Everything is fine, You were lucky, shut Your mouth and be happy. What he does? - Well:
Zoom in the browser if You can't see, we are not able to make this any larger.
Don't mix patience with 100% luck, You dumbass. Those could easily be 20-30% DD, repeat that shit 10x in a row, and we promise You, it won't end nicely. We are quite sure that this one won't be able to keep its DD under 30% even in medium-term. Out of the 4 strategies, we trust the least in this one.
The final 3 groups - all of these signals are solid, very solid. Despite that, we need to divide them and rank them accordingly. We, personally, love this part the most - there are actually some truly reasonable signals out there, and we have no problems to point them out.
Group 3 - tier 3 heroes:
These are very solid picks for any investor, yet, not the very best out there. It doesn't mean that these don't have the potential to be at the top, but that's the way we see this situation AT THE CURRENT time.
ManhaTTan Club - out of 7 signals in this group, this should be rated the lowest. Some of the existing subscribers are voicing concerns about the copying problems. The way how we see this - with ECN broker and lower spreads on exotic forex pairs (EURAUD/GBPAUD), copying this one should not be such a headache. Trades remain open for atleast 40 min, therefore, VPS is not a concern - it's all about Your broker's offered spreads. The signal performs great with regards to maintaining reasonable level of risks, although there are other competitors that offer greater rewards for the same DD levels.
Retracer 2 pair - we hate Alpari's accounts because of random nature of deposits - impossible to tell whether the author is manipulating with his drawdown levels. On top of that, most of the trades are being opened just after midnight, when some brokers are not functioning at all. Despite everything, if a potential subscriber can secure reasonable spread on EURUSD pair between 0:00 and 1:00, this is a great strategy to copy.
MaxProfit2018 - similarly to previous signal, this one has no problems to keep risks in check and it also tends to generate reasonable, yet, not perfect, growth for the chosen level of risks. The main concern about this one - information about past's DD is lacking; despite that, it is not such a big of a deal, as there is information about ~1300 closed positions when the account was already linked with MQl5 platform.
REITAK Night Fast Money Safe - out of all REITAK's trading signals, we like this one the most. Except for that 1 case when DD broke above 25%, the signal has managed to keep risks in check and produce substantial gains. We would advise to reduce the overall risk level by 1/3, establishing stability of this signal even further. Despite that, the start of this signal has been very solid thus far.
GutsOverFear - despite having great growth/DD ratios and limited risks, this one lacks significant history (both in time and amount of trades) to be placed any higher. The fact that the trading is fully-manual doesn't help here as well - one should be very concerned whether the author will be able to keep up with such strong start.
DgEkvalC - this signal has displayed amazing durability and ability to profit throughout different times. Having in mind all of that, September's performance was a struggle, not to say least. If we were to analyze 6m or 1y performance, this signal would be higher, but with regards to 1m and 3m performance, we cannot place it any higher. For now...
Eagle EyE Ultimate - FX Sumo did analyze this signal a bit deeper than some other it's peers due to its tremendous uprising in terms of subscribers. Obviously, an enormous reason for this increase was our positive review in the last update, after which the signal managed to jump from 0 to 24 subscribers within 2 weeks. Somehow, we feel co-responsive for the performance of the signal, thus, in this update we will brake down our view about this one in more detailed manner. Let's dive into this:
If You did spot in the legend of analyzed signals, this is the one, which DD is calculated, from our perspective, wrongly. This trading strategy does not fear to use SL function, and there is no problem with that fundamentally. Mathematically, it rises questions about the true DD of the signal.
MQL5 determines drawdown based on maximum of the 2 - either balance DD or equity DD. Equity DD is determined by the largest slip-up of the unclosed trades (floating losses), while balance DD is determined by the largest slip-up of the closed trades (fixed losses).
Let's have a look on Eagle's DDs:
Equity DD - below 5%;
Balance DD - 8,8%, according to MQl5 and the owner.
From the 2 values, Balance DD is higher and, thus, this is the value displayed in MQl5. From our perspective, this is wrong. The true DD of the signal was larger -> it is clearly seen in the Equity graph, that even after reaching the lowest value in balance, the equity did slip even further down. Realistically, the true DD for the month of September should display the combination of slip-up in balance and floating losses at the lowest level of Balance:
Our calculated DD for September for this signal is 11,87%, which is very close to the profits that the signal managed to generate, resulting in growth/DD ratio of 1. Even then, growth/DD ratio of 1 is not bad and still can be considered as reasonable result.
The problem with DD for this signal doesn't end just there - most of signal providers are not accustomed to have floating DD with closed positions, but here it is the case. When the next month will start, from the very start, even with 0 open positions, the signal will have 6,55% drawdown, which is equivalent to the current balance DD. As of result, the signal will have ATLEAST 6,55% drawdown, if we assume that it won't slide in balance/equity before making new highs. That's the hard life of signal provider, we guess.
Despite these shenanigans with drawdown, the signal continues to perform in a very solid trajectory. Growth is solid, which is displayed in the author's second trading signal, EA 5, as well. Out of all 7 trading signals here, this should be rated the highest. Although growth/DD is not bad at all and risks remain controlled, we cannot promote this one higher. We understand that the signal's base of subscribers remain very positive about its future, but there are some things that concern us:
a) 10-15% drawdown target, which is set by the author, remains unrealistic - from our perspective, it's a matter of time before it brakes higher. EA 5, which has 2x higher risk tolerance, already has reached 30% in terms of real DD (not MQL5 bullshit values) and for Eagle that would mean 15% with 2x lower risk. 15% within 3 months and You set that as a target? - cmon, wake the hell up. Either get rid of this target or reduce the size of positions;
b)over-optimization is a huge (HUGE) concern. Messing with TP levels just because 2 or 3 times in a row the price was a few pips away to close a position with TP? - Nonsense. If that is a solid system, leave it be.
We still remain absolutely positive about the service that is provided here, however, we felt that it is necessary to balance this debate, there are concerns that should be resolved. All in all, this one has a ton of potential, but most of that is centered around the author and his manual intervention with the system.
Group 2 - tier 2 heroes:
The cream of the best signals is here. These 3 trading signals have displayed tremendous performance and should be considered by any reasonable and efficiency-driven investor.
ICM1 - the signal has been out there for 2+ years, however, signal's performance in the last 9 month has been sensactional. Yes, some of the historical DD is not there, and, yes, a year ago the strategy did struggle a lot. Despite everything, the author has not changed the trading strategy and currently its rolling smoothly. It is impossible to say for how long such performance will be maintained, but as the last 3 months are being analyzed here, this one is special.
Scrptx Portfolio - DD values are available only for the last 3 months, yet signal's performance in the period has been great. The fact that manual trading system can secure so low risk levels is very very impressive. With the way how this trading is built, it seems that the signal is here to say. And You know what - those are great news for investors, cheers!:)
Millionaire Signal - honestly, we feel quite surprised on how smooth the trading has been for the last 3 months. Yes, there have been some bumps, but we have managed to avoid all type of surrounding bullshitery. With regards to trading in September, our growth was higher than it would usually be with the similar levels of risk - these volatility spikes in EURUSD and GBPUSD did help us a lot to secure profits, which normally would not be achievable. Despite this, we keep reminding potential (and existing) followers that we won't be able to secure such low DD values - backtests can prove that. Although we are more than happy about past success, we remain cautiously enthusiastic about our performance and future prospects.
Group 1 - tier 1 heroes:
How the fuck are they doing this? - That's what we think when we see these performances.
ChickenPips - similarly to Eagle, another of our last month's favourite signals has managed to break in among 25 most-subscribed trading signals. And You know what - for fk sake, well deserved, bravo! Steady performance and superb control of risks - such a strong combination. As this is manual system, the real risks are behind author's ability to cope with responsibility of larger pool of investors' money. If the author remains persistent, this one has a ton (truly, ton) of potential.
Portofolioku - when one of our followers asked to include this one in the review, we were very skeptical. Strangely, we are not able to figure out what's wrong with this one - it just seems too good to be true, yet there is no visible underlying bullshitery. One would suggest that with manual trading, this was some random miracle, not to ever be repeated, however, the author has closed more than 850 positions and has done it consistenly, without any let-downs. We will remain cautious towards this one, but for now there are lack of arguments to place the signal in any other group - last 3 months have been unbelievably (really, we cannot believe this) good. Daaamn, that's all we can say about this...
That's all from our side. Guys, if You feel that this content brings value to both potential and existing subscibers of different forex trading signals, share our content with other investors as well. FX Sumo is here to educate and raise awarness, however, we are still building up site's recognition, and You could help us with this tremendously. If You have any suggestions or You disagree with some of the ideas, feel free to leave Your comment below! Otherwise, we would be happy to chat with You on our Telegram group!
Best of luck,